Notes from the Research Desk

September 19, 2016

Stocks recovered some of the losses seen the prior week despite the rise in market volatility as the S&P 500 produced three days of moves greater than 1% this week. US economic growth slowed in Q1/Q2 2016 but remains resilient. Q3 2016, thus far, appears solid through sustained job growth, consumer spending, and housing. Data released by the Census Bureau showed that real median household income in America rose +5.2% in 2015.


Hawkish talk by some of our Fed governors shook the markets over the past couple of weeks, but the rhetoric has slowed as have the market's volatility.  ECB and BOJ have reiterated no changes in their respective policies. 


Lots of oil analysts are predicting a return to prices of $70-$80 per barrel in 2017. We're not sold on this idea, as the forces that drove it down in 2015-16 are still intact. Of course, exploration and production have been reduced in an attempt to match demand and prices have shored up from the lows of early 2016. But we wouldn't be surprised to see oil meander in the mid $40's to mid $50's a year from now.


NFL is back in LA as the Rams kicked off their first home game in LA in over two decades. Despite another week without a touchdown, the mighty Rams squeaked out a hard fought win in a 9-3 pitcher's duel against the Seattle Seahawks. Go defense!




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