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Notes from the Research Desk

March 7, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 2.7% last week. It was the third consecutive weekly gain of more than 1% as oil prices continued to recover. Friday's US jobs report was better than expected and risk assets are being bought. Nice accumulation pattern occured in the past week's trading days. Mornings were typically weak, followed by aggessive buying into the close. 

 

Q1 2016 economic growth in the US appears solid, so far. In additon to solid jobs growth, consumer spending remains intact and housing is on good footing. 

 

Still a few weeks of Q4 earnings reports ahead. Results to this pont have been better than expectations, modestly beating expectations. Q4 2015 will be lower compared to Q4 2014, with the Energy sector as the primary culprit of the lower earnings. But, 68% should beat forecasts with a  3% surprise factor.

 

It's not all-clear yet. Technicals are still deteriorating, suggesting we're in a counter-trend rally during a correction. 2016 earnings estimates are coming down. And the US Presidential race is unsettled and unsettling. 

 

UCLA needs to run the table in the Pac-12 hoops tournament, which starts this week. USC looks like a buble squad with 20 wins and a mid-pack conference finish. A couple of wins will surely help the Trojans resume for a ticket to the big dance. It's March, baby!

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